Aw, here it goes!
It's Denver again. A look at Portland's chances and a brief look at the rest of the NBA Playoffs.
If you’re too young, or too old, to get the headline.
All things considered, Denver was the best possible first-round matchup for the Blazers. That doesn’t make the fear of Nikola Jokic any less real, but only in the Western Conference of the NBA can a meeting with the likely MVP be considered a decent draw. The natural uneasiness for Blazers fans comes from knowing Denver definitely wanted to face Portland too.
Of course, Blazers fans know all too well why the higher-seeded Nuggets are now seen as betting underdogs at most sportsbooks, even ones outside of Oregon. Injuries have robbed the Blazers franchise of several fruitful playoff runs and the eternal NBA struggle has done the same to the Nuggets following the tragic ACL injury to Jamal Murray. But it’s not simply Murray who is gone. Will Barton and PJ Dozier, who emerged for the Nuggets in the bubble, are both going to miss at least Game 1. Gone too are rugged wing defenders Gary Harris and Torrey Craig.
The other reason why the Blazers aren’t the underdog is that their scars have healed. Anybody who has followed the NBA for more than a few years knows that Health Is Championships. Jusuf Nurkic, whom I accused of looking like an overpaid Daniel Theis at times, is looking like an even better version of his 2019-self. His chemistry with Norman Powell, Olshey’s brilliant acquisition (it really pains me to give Olshey credit) at the trade deadline by snatching him from the tanking Raptors, has formed yet another brutal action for defenses to recover from while also allowing Lillard and McCollum to focus more energy on defense.
On the other side, despite Murray’s absence and the rest of Denver’s issues, there’s still quite a duo to deal with. Jokic often draws comparisons to quarterbacks for his long outlet passes. But if Jokic is a quarterback, Michael Porter Jr. is his big-play receiver. Anti-Vaxx Randy Moss. MAGA Beckham Jr. Whatever Fox News or r/TheDonald nicknames we can come up with to deflect his ability, Porter’s jumper borders on unguardable at the top of his release but Portland will have to “do their work” before Porter gets there.
Even before he touches the ball, Portland is going to have to make Porter work and do their scouting to know where he is going. Testing his handle and his decision-making is going to be key for trying to get him off his game, especially when he’s never been asked to do many of the things the Nuggets will ask of him on the playoff stage.
Another avenue for Porter to get to his jumper is the brilliant Argentine Facundo Campazzo. I’m convinced the Nuggets signed him, not because he played as the Nuggets on 2K as he says, but because he and Luis Scola stole Jokic’s chance at a FIBA World Cup in China in September of 2019. Campazzo, as Lillard told media earlier this week, finds ways to positively affect the game. His passing and low dribble help him create angles offensively, while his smart help defense and refusal to give up on plays helps fill gaps and take advantage of sloppy play.
The Nuggets are a very good team and they have yet to fall off, shorthanded they may be. But this Blazers team is healthier, deeper, and has more three-point shooting in volume than their 2019 group.
Seven of Portland’s rotation regulars, including Jusuf Nurkic, at a low volume, are shooting above 36 percent from the 3-point line on the season. That includes three players who shoot at a higher volume: CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, and Anfernee Simons, who are shooting above 40 percent.
Of the 8-man rotation that Stotts used to finish the season, Enes Kanter is the only player who isn’t shooting near or above league-average from the 3-point line. The only one of the seven that isn’t above league-average (36.7%) is Powell, who is shooting 36.1%. The 2019 squad only had five players above 36% from the 3-point line and that group included Skal Labissiere and Meyers Leonard, who combined to record 40 minutes across seven games in the 2019 Western Conference Semifinals.
So, yeah, I’d say this current team is more well-equipped to handle the blitzes the Nuggets sent at Lillard in 2019.
Of course, defense is how you win championships. This team, despite what the overall defensive rating says, also might be better. Portland comes into the playoffs with the worst defensive rating of the remaining 16 teams, but they have shown more signs of life after getting healthy, and continuing to improve upon that progress will be crucial to any success they’ll have. They’ve been 18th in defense over the last 15 games and they were ranked 21st since the trade deadline, after adding Powell. This team should win.
Playing Denver again will trigger those old anxieties. The 4 OTs. Denver winning Game 4 less than 48 hours later. All the unexplainable Jokic magic that makes you bite your knuckle and cackle. But it’s good to feel it all. Isn’t it good to be back?
Prediction: Blazers in 6
Gambler’s Brain: 10 bucks on Blazers sweep at +1100, why not bet on the inverse New Orleans? The vibes feel right!
Lakers-Suns
It’s a very popular take these days to adopt Lakers Cynicism. “Oh, of course, they won in the play-in because the NBA wants the Lakers to go far.” “LeBron is faking this injury to play up his eventual title.” All the same cry baby Lakers rhetoric I’ve grown up with my entire life. But here’s the thing: I’ve watched basically every Lakers game over the last three seasons. And this cry baby stuff feels more like PTSD than an actual appraisal of this current Lakers team. These guys haven’t been the same since Anthony Davis got hurt against Denver back in February. Also, this isn’t about losing money gambling on the Lakers or writing a Blazers newsletter. I bet the Lakers to win the championship early last season. This Lakers team never gave me the same urge.
The Suns are so much deeper than the Warriors. Cameron Payne, their 5th or 6th best player, is better than anybody on the Warriors not named Steph Curry or Draymond Green. DeAndre Ayton, inexperienced he may be, has been body-warged by Chris Paul, who honestly is kind of the NBA’s Bran Stark when you really think about it. Also, if we really want to get into conspiracies, what better way for the NBA and State Farm to thank Chris Paul for orchestrating an All-Star Game that not even LeBron wanted than helping him advance past his buddy?
The Lakers are the champs and they will not wilt. But they are too banged up to win this series and more important than the State of the Lakers, the Suns are too good.
This series is also going to be a great test of my “Bubble Theory,” which was inspired after reading Ben Golliver’s “Bubbleball,” which you should buy if you haven’t already. The Young Suns left the bubble energized for the coming season and were given the luxury of something resembling a normal offseason, whereas the Lakers had a 71-day layoff after spending 96 days in the bubble.
Prediction: Suns in 7
Celtics-Nets
I wish Jaylen Brown was healthy. Steve Nash is going to use this as a tune-up and probably work on some new plays he’s been cooking up with Mike D’Antoni and the crew.
Prediction: Nets in 4
Wizards-Sixers
Joel Embiid might average 25 free-throw attempts per game. The Wizards played a great game on Thursday to get into the playoffs, but it hurts watching Bradley Beal right now. He’s giving it his all after skipping the bubble, but it just sucks to watch him, as much as the rest of the Wizards give life. Ish Smith. Robin Lopez. Rui Hachimura. We see you.
If Beal, Davis Bertans, and other Wizards role players get going from outside, they could steal one. I just don’t see it.
Prediction: Sixers in 4
Miami-Milwaukee
This is another Bubble Theory Game. The Bucks not only left the bubble earlier than the Heat, but the Bucks also carried the added weight of sparking the NBA’s wildcat strike in the bubble following the murder of Jacob Blake by police in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, the Heat were a completely different team in the bubble compared to their pre-bubble season, riding the trademark grit of Jimmy Butler into the NBA Finals. But a lot of the Heat hopes rest on the Wisconsin water rekindling the Bubble Magic of Wisconsin-native Tyler Herro.
The Heat also lost Jae Crowder to the Suns, a crucial piece to their success in the bubble, while the Bucks added Jrue Holiday, whose defense and big-time shotmaking should help loosen things up for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis has also worked to incorporate more of a floater game this season, while slightly incorporating more midrange shots from the free-throw line area, which should help him have more answers for Miami’s Great Wall of Adebayo.
Prediction: Bucks in 5
Knicks-Hawks
I have a feeling this is going to be an unexpected classic. Two young, hungry teams with several players looking to make a great first impression on the playoff stage. While the Hawks have been great since Nate McMillan took over, I believe in the back-end rotation players of the Knicks slightly more in a playoff scenario than I do the Hawks. Tom Thibodeau was built for this.
Prediction: Knicks in 7
Dallas-Clippers
This series isn’t as clear to me as it is to Vegas. The Clippers have a great team and they look a little bit more put together this season. And if we are to entertain Bubble Theory, the Clippers struggled mightily in the setting, according to Paul George’s testimonials about the Bubble’s detriments to his mental health.
However, their team is relying heavily on Serge Ibaka who only just returned on the final weekend of the regular season when the Clippers engaged in the most shameless tank job in NBA history. Their other big-money guy outside of Kawhi and PG? Marcus Morris Sr. I’ve never felt good about that recipe.
Last week’s tank job, too, also leaves a bad taste in my mouth. They accomplished their goal of avoiding the Lakers side of the bracket, sure. But they still have to go against Luka, with another year under his belt, who already took two games off of them last season.
The Clippers’ addition of Rajon Rondo and Nicolas Batum are two that definitely have paid dividends. Rondo’s creative ability and Batum’s ability to read situations on defense as a helper has provided a stronger base. Still, I come away worried about how their top-end talent will work together.
The Clippers are a veteran team, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and lean their way. But I won’t lie and say I’m not looking at those juicy Mavericks odds.
Prediction: Clippers in 7
Jazz-Grizzlies (!!!)
The Grizzlies provided ultimate validation for the NBA Play-In tournament on Friday night. Ja Morant gets to go up against his predecessor Mike Conley. The Jazz get to avoid Stephen Curry.
It isn’t what the NBA obviously wanted from a rating perspective, but fuck all that. Friday demonstrated what the Play-In should be created for.
This shit ain’t about calculating television ratings. This shit is about GAME.
Check ball.