Cronin Extension Begs Questions
Blazers GM Joe Cronin just got a contract extension. But will recency bias allow him to take it one step further or stop him before it gets started?
The news that the Portland Trail Blazers had extended general manager Joe Cronin was met with mixed reception among the fan base. Some were thrilled. And some were not so thrilled and thought of it as yet another sign of an absentee ownership group doing things without a plan. And both sides have their reasons.
Those who were excited could easily point to moves like finally adding a G League team, the hiring of Mike Schmitz, the Deni Avdija trade, or the inclusion of Toumani Camara in the Damian Lillard trade. To say nothing of the individual improvement of Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, as well as the emergence of Donovan Clingan in his first season.
Those who were upset could point to their fair share of moves as well. They could point to effectively salary-dumping Norman Powell, who has become a key part of a Western Conference contender with the Clippers, to save the Vulcans money. Or they could point to the long-term contracts doled out to players who Damian Lillard wanted by his side, even though both the front office and Dame knew they weren’t long for one another, such as Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle. Not to mention their inability or unwilligness to move Anfernee Simons despite taking two lottery pick guards who need minutes.
The Cronin extension brings more questions than it does answers. And one of those questions I’ve been hearing a lot from smart people who care about this team: will recency bias once again be this franchise’s downfall?
It seems like it was only yesterday, but nine years ago at this time the Blazers were, like they are now, the beneficiaries of low expectations.
Back then, they were led by Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, blowing past their projected win-total of 26.5 and winning a first round playoff series. Portland’s unexpected season of success also happened during an unprecedented spike in the NBA salary cap.
And if you subscribe to this newsletter, you’re probably enough of a Blazers fan to know what happened next: Portland, like every team in the NBA outside of the Golden State Warriors, paid anybody who asked for money what they wanted and less than a year later came to regret all of it.
Allen Crabbe 4/75 million. Evan Turner 4/70 million. Festus Ezeli, who would never play in the NBA again, 2/15 million. A year later, Crabbe was traded to Brooklyn for Andrew Nicholson, who was subsequently waived and stretched over the following seven years and also never played in the NBA again. Three years after he was originally signed, Turner was traded for another Class of 2016 overpay, Kent Bazemore. Those signings, while they were great come-ups for each player, came to represent the failure of the Lillard Era.
What we know now with the power of hindsight is: Dame, CJ and Terry Stotts ruined their front office’s plans to tank. The Neil Olshey-led front office built a roster that was not supposed to win games. Trading away veteran forward Nicolas Batum for a project in Noah Vonleh was the clearerst sign of all that Olshey wanted the Blazers to tank and get another high draft pick to help build around their two stud guards. But the players and coach, playing for their own jobs, defied expectations. Sound familiar?
Joe Cronin was there and there is no doubt that he remembers that better than you or me. The real question is whether Bert Kolde, Jody Allen and Vulcans remember the cost of getting overly excited about a season that exceeded every outside expectation. And Chauncey Billups too has been a big part of Portland exceeding their expectations. But it also can’t be removed from the equation that he was also part of why the expectations were so low.
Just a little over a year ago, rumors started swirling about Billups potentially taking the Phoenix Suns head coaching job, only a few weeks after the Blazers elected to fire Billups’ younger brother Rodney. A lot has been made since Memphis fired Taylor Jenkins about the Grizzlies front office firing his entire staff the previous summer. Well, the Blazers fired their head coach’s own brother. What does that say? And has a 14-win improvement changed that much about their relationship?
The Suns eventually hired Mike Budenholzer, who coached the Milwaukee Bucks to a championship in 2021 over the Suns. But with every weird press conference Budenholzer or Kevin Durant have, the more it seems like Budenholzer isn’t long for the job. And if the job becomes open could Billups and the Suns, who are owned by Michigan-based billionaire Mat Ishbia, find their way together again?
And the bigger question then becomes, should Portland stand in their way? Or what about the recently opened Head Coach job in Denver? Billups is a hometown hero in Denver, helping lead the Nuggets to a Western Conference Finals, the high-water mark of the pre-Jokic era.
History suggests the Blazers should take the house money, go home and regroup with a fresh start as they look ahead to 2025-26. But the extension begs the question: has winning 35 games and just missing the play-in changed that much?
Like Kenny Rogers said in “The Gambler,” you gotta know when to hold ‘em, when to fold ‘em, when to walk away, and when to run. As Joe Cronin looks at this team with a fresh extension, Blazers fans have to hope that he looks at the hand he’s been dealt, coupled with the low expectations they came with, before deciding whether it’s time to double-down or if it’s time for something that resembles a fresh start.