Erik's Top-10 NBA Over-Unders for the 2023-24 Season
Erik is all-in on WembyMania and a little more cautious about the Blazers.
The 2023-24 NBA season is here. And on Wednesday, a new era is starting for the Portland Trail Blazers. They will look different, but I have a feeling that people will quickly realize that different doesn’t always mean better. This year is going to have a lot of growing pains and probably will end with the Blazers in the lottery.
For that reason, for the first time in my gambling life, I’m staying away from the Blazers number altogether. DraftKings currently has Portland’s over-under at 28.5, which they could absolutely clear and still be very much in the lottery again. We have yet to see the Billups-led Blazers actually go for it for a full season. In their favor, they’ve had good stretches of play in spots with Billups as coach. Their youth and athleticism could also be a strength rather than a weakness, given assistant coach Roy Rogers’ proclivity for frequently switching defensive coverages on the fly.
But for all those potential positives, the lone mark of on-court consistency under Billups and Cronin has been losing. Given how many teams at the bottom of the West are actually trying this year, it’s going to be very hard to have any confidence in their ability to string wins together. Also, much like the Utah Jazz last year, all of Portland’s veterans, such as Jerami Grant, Robert Williams, and Malcolm Brogdon, are all serious candidates to be traded by midseason. There will likely be a lot of buyers with a wide-open championship window.
So, for those reasons, you will not find them below in my picks this year. But we have an entire season to discuss what’s going on with the Blazers, starting tomorrow night. If you want a fun bet that could actually win, maybe take a flier on the Blazers winning the inaugural in-season tournament at 70-1. But the rest of these picks are going to be Blazer-free.
For those of you who need a refresher on this column: my friend Brock organizes an NBA over-under pool every season and I give my picks to all of you as a way to hold myself accountable to my preseason predictions. It’s a winner-take-all pool and last year’s edition came down to the final day, as I was probably the only person in the world watching the Game 82 match-up between the Rockets and Wizards.
But that’s why we gamble, to give otherwise meaningless NBA games a little extra juice. The Rockets came back from 17 points down to beat the Wizards, locking in the Wizards season under at 33.5. That win gave me the victory in the pool, as I finished 6-4 overall, including a perfect 5-for-5 on “super picks” worth double. Nobody has gone back-to-back. Follow me as I take you through my plan to be the first.
In Alphabetical Order
Dallas Mavericks UNDER 43.5
What exactly is supposed to get me excited about the 2023-24 Dallas Mavericks? I know that Luka is going to be an MVP candidate even though watching him play can be a real drag. For as great of a passer as he is, the ball really sticks to him. Also, we are about to enter Kyrie Irving’s first full season as a Maverick. It starts with love-bombing (“I wish I was drafted here.”) and inevitably ends in some kind of disaster. Maybe since this is probably his last shot to be a max player, things will work out great. But I also don’t think signing Grant Williams and drafting a rookie center (Dereck Lively) who isn’t Victor Wembanyama will help them beat other frontcourts. They’ve got a lot of deficiencies and I don’t think the offensive brilliance of Luka or Kyrie will be enough to make up for those issues. But if the Kyrie thing doesn’t work out and they flame out again? Get ready to see Luka in a Bad Bunny video wearing a Miami Heat jersey.
Golden State Warriors UNDER 47.5 (SUPER PICK)
The Warriors got older in the backcourt when they were already one of the most experienced teams in the league. The Jordan Poole-Draymond Green situation had to be addressed, but the Warriors became a worse team in the process. While Poole struggled to replicate the magic of the 2022 title run, this bet is one that says they will greatly miss his ability to go off for 30 or 40 on any given night. Steph Curry is still a top-five player and if the Warriors hit the over, he will have to put together an MVP season. But we still need to see whether young players like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody can consistently contribute, which they have yet to do in their careers. Oh and also, Draymond Green is missing the first game. All of those things are screaming under.
Los Angeles Lakers OVER 47.5
The only reason I didn’t give this pick the “super” designation: Anthony Davis rarely plays a full season and LeBron James is turning 39 years old this season. However, Rob Pelinka’s deadline-day makeover has the Lakers better positioned to absorb missed games from their dynamic duo. Austin Reaves is a 3-level conductor who can cause problems for any defense and Rui Hachimura looked like a completely different player in a Laker uniform. The addition of Gabe Vincent in free agency also gives them some additional shot creation, while L.A.’s team defense is solid enough to stay afloat.
Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 44.5
The Timberwolves made major news this week by signing Jaden McDaniels to a 5-year contract worth $136 million. That move capped off a huge summer for the Timberwolves, which included Naz Reid signing a new deal, Anthony Edwards showing out for Team USA, and Karl-Anthony Towns having a great experience as the leader of the Dominican Republic national team at the FIBA World Cup. Chris Finch is one of the most innovative offensive coaches in the league and this is the year Anthony Edwards achieves superstar status. A lot of people are looking at the Wolves to trade KAT, but I think the Wolves brass (don’t forget Wolves co-owner Alex Rodriguez is also Dominican!) will give this team one year to really go for it. I think they will be rewarded with a top-6 seed.
New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 45.5 (SUPER PICK)
For about two months last season, the Pelicans looked like a lock for the playoffs, ready to finally deliver on the potential contender status many NBA hipsters saw after they traded Anthony Davis. They were the No. 1 seed in December. And then basically everybody but CJ McCollum got hurt. We have still yet to see Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson play enough games together to buy into them. I hate to make this comparison, but their consistent lack of availability is bringing back memories of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden. Amazing talent, but they could never stay healthy enough to build anything you can count on. It’s a bummer because the Pelicans were billed as the NBA’s next big thing. I don’t think things will suddenly change. It’s depressing, I know, but just take the under.
New York Knicks UNDER 45.5
The Knicks won more games last year than they had in any of the previous 10 seasons. The acquisition of Josh Hart fit their team at the deadline, giving them another hard-nosed player to play under Tom Thibodeau. Jalen Brunson proved to be an All-Star caliber guard and they won their first playoff series in a decade. But what happens when Hart starts to get grief from the fans at MSG for passing up open 3s? What happens if Julius Randle stops hitting at a league-average level on those difficult step-back 3s he loves? Can RJ Barrett take a step forward as the team’s No. 2? I’m skeptical of all of the above. The Knicks were a great story last year and their playoff win against Cleveland was a great step forward for the franchise. But last year’s performance doesn’t guarantee a step forward. I’m betting against it.
Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 44.5 (SUPER PICK)
I know the Blazers brass was looking at Oklahoma City last year and were intrigued with what they saw. I was as well. While they failed to qualify for the 8th playoff spot in the last play-in game last year, they used the previous two seasons to establish a style of play. For them, they created a 5-out offensive look that allowed space for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey to do their thing. Now they add a mobile big in Chet Holmgren to the mix, who fits exactly what they’ve tried to do. While it won’t be the same style, I hope Portland, like OKC before them, uses a season of no expectations to establish a style of play. The Thunder, young as they are, know exactly who they are. In an NBA world that is constantly in flux, I’m planning on riding the Thunder all the way to the cash-out window. We will see them in the playoffs.
Orlando Magic OVER 37.5 (SUPER PICK)
The Orlando Magic were my League Pass team last year and they were a super pick as well. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner look like a new-age version of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. I truly believe the sky is the limit for the Banchero-Wagner duo. They also have a lot of young players who fit them well, most notably center Wendell Carter Jr., who eats rebounds and provides space as a 3-point shooter. Markelle Fultz also looks almost like his old self, defending at a very high level and making plays offensively. Losing lead assistant Nate Tibbetts to the WNBA will hurt, but after years of tanking, this bet says the young Magic are finally ready for the spotlight.
San Antonio Spurs OVER 29.5 (SUPER DUPER MEGA EXTRA SUPER PICK)
Let me just say that I’m excited to have Scoot Henderson on the Blazers. But we have never seen anything like Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs don’t often try to lose, but they did last year. I do not think they will try to lose this season, simply because Wemby is too good to let them. And who knows how many years Popovich will keep coaching. I don’t think he wants a repeat of last year.
And while the NBA is the world’s best basketball league, Wemby is coming from an environment in European basketball where the rules are generated to give the defense more of a chance. The court is bigger in the NBA, thus allowing Wemby’s length to have even more of an impact. He’s going to win Rookie of the Year. The Spurs are going to blow through the over and they might even mess around and make the playoffs.
I watched a ton of Wemby’s French league games on the NBA app and also watched him contribute off the bench as a 17/18-year-old for the EuroLeague club ASVEL, who has been awful since he left. Wemby took his French team last year, which previously didn’t even exist, to the French finals. He’s not just a gimmick. He’s a winner. And I think the NBA is going to need a year to adjust to him as much as he will need a year to adjust to the league.
Bonus play: Wemby to average over 17.5 points per game (-115 on DraftKings), Spurs 35+ wins (+285 on DraftKings), and Spurs 40+ wins (+750). It might sound crazy right now. In a month, it won’t be that crazy anymore.
Good luck and happy NBA!