Erik's Top-10 Over-Unders

The annual contest is back. Trail at your own risk.

We made it! And I can honestly say I’m happy to be back. But my lord did I need a break. You see, since the NBA returned for the Orlando Bubble in late August, Basketball, quite literally, hasn’t stopped. That was until this summer.

We got to have a real Pre-Draft period. An actual free agency period. A real summer league. And then mercifully, absolutely no consequential NBA basketball. Even for someone who simply watches basketball every night, the burnout was hitting. One can only imagine how many of the players feel, getting little-to-no breaks from a vicious cycle of NBA basketball the likes of which we have never seen. But that’s what the millions are for.

We even got a solid month between the end of the WNBA season and the start of the NBA season. Do you hear that? That’s the entire basketball world exhaling. And now we go again into the fall and winter, with league pass nights adding warmth to our nights. NBA Basketball is the hygge of the season.

And you know what that means: it’s time to run back my top-10 over-under bets for the NBA season, a tradition that my pal Brock has been in charge of for several years. Last year I was 5-5 on predictions, with several of my super picks, worth double, hitting. But this group is tough. Just being .500 isn’t good enough to win. I got 5th out of 11 players last year. The road to redemption starts now.

Chicago Bulls - OVER 41.5

As a huge fan of Lonzo Ball, this Bulls season is off to a depressing start. Lonzo is no closer to being back on the floor than he was after surgery last season and it seems like his knees might really cut his career short. The name “Brandon Roy” has been thrown out in connection to him, which is triggering enough. And yet, the Bulls were a very solid regular season team last year with Lonzo missing most of the season. DeMar DeRozan is one of the most consistent players in the league and while Nikola Vucevic can get exposed in the playoffs, he’s still a monster in the regular season. That, plus a healthy Alex Caruso has me believing in an above-.500 season for Chicago, which is all it will take to hit the over. Patrick Williams isn’t living up to his lottery-pick potential, but guys like Ayo Donsumu and Javonte Green should help on the defensive end.

Charlotte Hornets - UNDER 33.5 (SUPER PICK)

It's not even a hot take to say the Hornets had the offseason from hell. These guys are giving the Jail Blazers a run for their money as one of the most dysfunctional teams of all time. And they don’t even have a playoff appearance to show for it. LaMelo Ball is good, but he’s not good enough to salvage this. Michael Jordan has a summer basketball tournament every year in Paris. Don’t think for a second he isn’t thinking about teaming up Victor Wembanyama with LaMelo to build a foundation for the first serious basketball team Charlotte has had since Baron Davis was in uniform. LaMelo will probably have some surgery he’s been putting off, he will sit and the Hornets are going to be in the mix for the league’s worst record. I bet the under when it was 35.5 on DraftKings and I took it again in this contest at 33.5 because few things have stunk more over the summer than these Hornets.

Orlando Magic OVER 26.5 (SUPER PICK)

I bet the Magic hit over 22.5 wins last year and that was premature. While Franz Wagner showed a lot of excellent play, the Magic were just so terrible everywhere else that it didn’t matter. Nobody quite knows when Jon Isaac will play basketball again. Perhaps he will make the announcement on Parler when he does. Anyway, Paolo Banchero was my No. 1 pick because of his strong frame and ability to create his own shot. Just having another shot creator and another athletic body in the lineup should help this team take a step forward, but probably not enough of a step forward to make the playoffs.

Detroit Pistons OVER 29.5

I will admit I’m being won over by the Pistons’ current turn in the Prestige Zone™️. They’ve got all the trappings of a young team on the rise. An executive who comes from a prestigious front office in Troy Weaver, who worked for a long time under OKC’s Sam Presti, and a well-respected coach in Dwane Casey. Jaden Ivey fell to them at 5 and they also got everyone’s favorite traditional center in the draft, Jalen Duren. If Cade Cunningham takes the leap most people expect him to take, the Pistons, like the Magic, will be one of the teams who can consider themselves a playoff team in the making.

Portland Trail Blazers OVER 39.5

Dame is back. They added some defenders. The biggest question for me is, now stop if you’ve heard this before, is Jusuf Nurkic. Will getting paid help to alleviate the anxiety of not getting paid like other centers? Or will it cause him to fall back into all of the bad habits that always seem to hold his incredible talent back? All of the skepticism is warranted, for sure. But when Dame has been healthy, this team has consistently outperformed expectations, save for a couple of outliers in his career. The bottom of the West will be tough and even getting out of the 9-10 spot isn’t a guarantee with 40 wins. But I believe in a healthy Dame and a more switchable group to win more games.

Philadelphia 76ers - OVER 50.5 (SUPER PICK)

There’s just something about Philly this year. James Harden’s weight loss journey has inspired me to believe, but Daryl Morey did more this offseason than he’s ever done to bolster the roster. PJ Tucker came over from Miami to play great defense and hit corner 3s. The Sixers were also able to take advantage of the Memphis Grizzlies drafting too well that they were unable to keep a very good guard in DeAnthony Melton. As someone who has been on the Celtics train for years as a bettor, the Sixers have the makings of a great regular-season team. They’ll definitely hit the over, which means I’m giving it the Super Pick designation.

Dallas Mavericks - UNDER 48.5

Luka Doncic could very well make me regret this, but there’s simply too much riding on him for the Mavericks to hit 49 wins. He’s a unique talent and one of the best offensive fulcrums in the league. But losing Jalen Brunson is going to hurt. Those minutes when Luka isn’t on the floor, somebody has to do something. Right now, they’re counting on those somebodies to be the hot-and-cold Tim Hardaway Jr. and Crypto King Spencer Dinwiddie, as well as former Oregon Duck Tyler Dorsey, who was getting buckets in the EuroLeague. Dinwiddie can help replace some of what Brunson did, but I think a loss of Brunson costing them four wins is a reasonable take. Also, any team counting on Christian Wood to win basketball games automatically loses at least 3 wins in my book. Take the under, even if Luka is one of the favorites for MVP.

Phoenix Suns - UNDER 52.5 (SUPER PICK)

I’d like to take this time to congratulate myself for never believing in last year’s Phoenix Suns. I made future plays during the playoffs on three teams in the West last season: Dallas, Golden State, and the Clippers. The Suns, both because of their odds and the vibes, never even crossed my mind. Maybe it was because of the Robert Sarver investigation, maybe it was the DeAndre Ayton contract fiasco. Perhaps it was all of the above. But I simply did not buy this team, even when they were winning 60+ games. Now? DeAndre Ayton is being forced by Suns PR to pretend as if he talks to head coach Monty Williams. Jae Crowder pulled an Eric Bledsoe and is straight up not with the team, while his replacement, Cam Johnson, was unable to come to terms with an extension, almost a mirror of what happened at this time last year with Ayton. Last year’s post-Finals afterglow helped them push their issues aside, but now they’re raw and open for everyone to see. If you’re looking for a team to be the biggest disappointment in the league, look no further than the Valley of the Sun. I think the loss of JaVale McGee will also hurt them more than most expect.

Golden State Warriors OVER 51.5 (SUPER PICK)

Look, I know these guys lost some players from their NBA Finals rotation. Gary Payton II, Otto Porter, and Nemanja Bjelica are good NBA-caliber players who they lost. The Draymond Green punch of Jordan Poole opened them up to jokes about this being the Last Dance for Draymond. But remember what happened in the Last Dance? Oh yeah, they won the championship. Steph is going to put on an MVP-caliber season and the younger Warriors, like Kuminga and Moody, will help provide athleticism that the Warriors didn’t have last year. 50-plus wins and 1st in the West is the vision for Golden State. But I do think a healthy Clippers team can knock them off in a playoff series. Kawhi is the King Slayer, after all.

Bonus: Steph is 12-1 is my favorite value bet for MVP. His team will probably be good enough and there’s a built-in Steph-Rennaissance narrative that might be too juicy for the TV partners to avoid. And once that narrative gets set, as we’ve seen before, it’s a tough train to beat.

Washington Wizards UNDER 35.5 (SUPER PICK)

Bradley Beal continues to get lumped in with Damian Lillard and I look at his record as the No. 1 guy like, are these people serious? It’s East Coast Bias/AAU culture at work. Bradley Beal is nowhere near Dame’s caliber of player. Just because he was more highly recruited as a high schooler and gets paid similarly does not mean he’s on his level. And oh yeah, the Wizards traded away a quality 3-and-D player in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Monte Morris and Will Barton. Kyle Kuzma is not so quietly thirsting after the Blazers. I do not see this team sniffing 36 wins. In fact, I think they’re going to compete with the Hornets for the worst team in the East. I hit the under and made it a super pick.

Finals Prediction: Clippers over Bucks in 6.

Good luck and happy basketball season!