Erik's Top-10 Over-Unders
A tradition unlike any other, with few victories to speak of
Y’all, we did it. The Chicago Sky are WNBA Champions. I watched less preseason basketball than I have in what is my 9th season covering the NBA professionally. Do you know what that is? Growth. And with the added oomph that not watching preseason can add, as well as an NBA preview that touched on all 30 teams, I’m ready to share with you my top-10 over-under selections for the coming season.
A little history behind this tradition, since this is my first time doing the top-10 over-under bets in this newsletter. I have a group of friends who have been putting together “wins pools” since college, starting with an NFL Playoff against the spread challenge, led and organized by pal Brock. The group started branching out into other challenges, like NFL win-totals, NBA over-unders, and here we are.
The only time I have ever won was when we did an over-under during the seeding games in the bubble, so the competition among this crew is stiff, with several NBA junkies among the bunch. The ground rules: there are 10 picks total and five “SUPER” picks, which can score you double points.
So picking these teams is serious business. It is a strategic endeavor that will ensure bragging rights and the guru-type of enlightenment that can carry you through more of this bullshit pandemic. But enough about that, let’s gamble baby!
Brooklyn Nets 56.5 - UNDER
There’s a very good chance that James Harden returns to the form he had for much of last season and along with Kevin Durant, that should be enough to be the best team in the East. But with a championship as the main goal and Kyrie Irving being held away from the team indefinitely due to his vaccination status, the Nets’ hitting the over seem like a bad bet.
They were one of the best teams last year, particularly against the spread, and are the title favorites for a reason. But 56.5 seems too high, especially when you consider Durant will manage his load throughout the season. On the contrary, Harden has been one of the most durable players in the league, but last season’s playoff injury and his general playoff struggles might be enough to force him into some nights off as well. Without Kyrie as a safety net, I don’t think these guys are even going to get the No. 1 seed, let alone win 57 games.
Milwaukee Bucks 54.5 - OVER (SUPER BET)
The Bucks have that new champion swagger. They knocked off the team that defeated them in the bubble by making quick work of the Miami Heat and then they vanquished Kevin Durant before winning the title. Giannis is still only 26 years old and coming off one of the greatest performances in NBA Finals history.
I don’t know that I have to explain much more. They’re also getting Donte DiVincenzo back into the fold, which will help their depth even more. 60 games feel like the Bucks range.
Miami Heat 48.5 - UNDER
Their big man rotation behind Bam Adebayo has me a little concerned. Adding Kyle Lowry is a huge plus for them on both ends, but I’m not sure how much of an upgrade he is over Goran Dragic for what the Heat need. However, they are a team for which Bubble Theory could work again, having finally had a full offseason following their unlikely run to the 2020 NBA Finals.
However, if the Heat makes the Finals again, I don’t think they’re going to do it from the top of the Eastern Conference bracket. They will have their work cut out to even win their division against an up-and-coming Hawks squad.
Denver Nuggets 47.5 - OVER (SUPER BET)
Nikola Jokic won MVP and judging by social media, he looks like he’s getting in better shape every year. He’s probably going to continue getting better and whatever issues the Nuggets might have with their supporting cast until Jamal Murray gets back are negligible because Jokic stabilizes so much.
Boston Celtics 46.5 - OVER (SUPER BET)
I’ll spare you another Celtics soliloquy.
Indiana Pacers 42.5 – OVER
Bringing in one of the top five coaches in the league, Rick Carlisle, to replace the worst coach in the league last season, Nate Bjorkgren, should result in a return to form for the Pacers.
Orlando Magic 22.5 - OVER
I love Jalen Suggs. I’m not really sure about anyone else on that team, but I think a solid 30-win season and a “watch out for the Magic next year” are on the table just with the arrival of Suggs.
Portland Trail Blazers 44.5 - OVER
The preseason reviews haven’t been good. It’s going to take a lot of time to change bad habits and learn new ones. But Dame and CJ seemingly always find a way to keep the Blazers above water. Their over is also one of the most popular bets on the market. My pal Jimmy Shapiro from BetOnline sent me data that Portland’s over-under has received an insane 99% of their action on the over.
Toronto Raptors 35.5 - OVER
The Raptors are back in Canada and I have immense respect for the consistency of their franchise, even before trading for Kawhi Leonard and winning the 2019 title. The vibes of the homecoming have me feeling the over. But I need Raptors fans to be nicer to Gary Trent Jr. You were supposed to take care of him! Blame Masai Ujiri for trading for him, Gary didn’t do anything to you!
New Orleans Pelicans 39.5 - UNDER (SUPER BET)
Zion Williamson’s return to the floor is still TBD. Their defense turns into a lay-up line even when he is on the floor. Brandon Ingram was recently an All-Star but save for creating his own shot, he doesn’t make his teammates better. Jonas Valanciunas is cool. And a lot of Pelicans fans on the internet are spending a lot of time hyping up Nickeil Alexander-Walker while rolling their eyes at GM David Griffin’s lies at the dais. DeVonte’ Graham was a solid addition, but he’s a downgrade on both ends from Lonzo Ball.
Happy wagering, everyone!