Is Olympic Theory The New Bubble Theory?
And other NBA postseason musings
One of the reasons I have this substack is so that I can be completely honest about my basketball takes. With no editors and only you, the reader, to discuss hoops with, it’s a wonderful outlet. And with that said, I have a confession to make to you: I’m so happy the Blazers aren’t in the playoffs this year. And I’m so glad Joe Cronin blew it up.
The Blazers were basically the Hawks last year. Except their general manager, Travis Schlenk, actually openly questioned his own decisions to bring back a group that had a surprising Conference Finals run. And have you been watching Denver in the playoffs? That’s the same team that beat the Blazers last year and they’re about to be the victims of a first-round gentlemen’s sweep.
Dame being on every commercial, wearing Blazers gear, is also a nice reminder that he is also getting a rare break while also reminding us “oh yeah, we tanked, but I’m still here,” not in Philly, like much of the national media wanted him to be. But aside from the changes to add flexibility, Dame has also been the beneficiary in another way by supporting the Blazers’ plans: most of his fellow NBA players who played with him in the Tokyo Olympics are dropping like flies in the playoffs.
It’s easy to forget that Dame didn’t look right in Tokyo and played through the abdominal injury for a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win a Gold Medal. It’s even easier to forget that most of the players who joined him in Tokyo had to go through the Bubble, a compressed 72-game season, and a grueling playoff run leading up to it. So far, Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday seem like the only ones impervious to this new theory that playing in the Olympics actually hurt your playoff performance. Kyrie Irving was right about one thing: the teams that went to the bubble killed each other and the Nets were right to avoid it, but Brooklyn’s execution is another story.
Khris Middleton and Devin Booker are both hurt. Kevin Durant was swept. Hell, even Luka Doncic, who wasn’t on Team USA but was in Tokyo, had to recover from a soft-tissue injury to get back. If the Mavs didn’t draw the Jazz, he might be outta here too. So with all the above said, who is going to win this championship? Finally, for the first time in years, there are multiple valid answers to the question. We are thankfully, no longer, in for a 4th straight Finals matchup of LeBron against Golden State. The NBA’s problem in the mid-2010s wasn’t their players speaking on on social and political issues, it was that their core product lacked the very basic drama that draws people to sports in the first place.
Injuries have totally changed the playoffs, which usually happens. The NBA Playoffs have been a war of attrition since they’ve existed. But in the history of the league, we have never had so much basketball played in such a short period of time. Between Bubble Theory proving to be true last year, where teams that didn’t have extended stays in the bubble ended up being fresher in last year’s playoffs, those teams who didn’t have extended runs last year seem poised to win the title. Olympic Theory is a child of Bubble Theory and you can see why very clearly now.
Boston and Golden State, who were both out very early last year, look like the two best teams in the league and are on a collision course. The team that broke the NBA offense against the team with the best defense I’ve seen in my life. Please! Gimme!
Milwaukee, while they still have Giannis, bounced back after a disappointing first two games against Chicago. But does anyone remember what the Bulls looked like before the playoffs started? They were the worst of the Final 16 teams standing. The Bucks shouldn’t get credit for bouncing back to beat a team everyone agreed was bad, but such is the life of a defending champion. I’ve still never felt better about my Celtics future bets.
What’s more, this mini-Bucks resurgence and the general tenor of how good they are right now reminds me a bit of when the Sixers looked dominant in James Harden’s first few games, two of which came against the Knicks, instantly inflating their perception of being a title contender. The same Sixers who, by the way, are now in scramble mode to avoid the most humiliating loss in NBA Playoff history. The Bucks have the benefit of the doubt, but this Boston team isn’t the same one they beat in 2019, nor are they the team that lost to Miami in the bubble in 2020.
In 2019, the Bucks could hunt Kyrie Irving on defense and in 2020 the Heat could hunt Kemba Walker and the Celtics had no answer. No longer do Celtics opponents have free money to grab, which makes me look forward to a much more competitive rematch of the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals, which is what I’m hoping for at this point. My friend Ian is also a Heat fan, who has made fun of me for betting on the Celtics to win the East all season, and I would love the banter for an entire series. But if Giannis averages 50 a game in a legendary series while the Celtics cut off the Bucks shooters, then so be it.
As far as the West is concerned, Golden State looks refreshed as hell after avoiding the bubble and getting bounced from the play-in tournament last season. They should take care of business against Denver tonight and then they will face the winner of the Memphis-Minnesota series, which is both exciting and maddening.
But no matter who the Dubs get of those two, they look light years ahead of both. And while the Suns pulled out a gritty Game 5 win last night and are going back to New Orleans for a Game 6, even if they survive this series, there’s a bad dude in Dallas waiting in the wings. Dallas still needs to beat Utah, but with Donovan Mitchell banged up, that seems like a mere formality. Mikal Bridges was fantastic in Game 5 and has historically been a thorn in the side of Luka Doncic. But don’t think for a second Luka doesn’t know that and hasn’t heard about how Bridges can shut him down.
If I had to pick right now, I would go with Golden State vs. Boston. But Luka getting hot, with a group of Dallas teammates that seem to all embrace their roles as shooters and defenders, still has the prophecy of a Boston vs. Dallas Finals very much alive.
Awards Discourse
I used to wish I had an NBA awards ballot. I’m not sure I do anymore, because the conversation never seems to get any more interesting. I listen to Draymond Green’s podcast, which I enjoy, especially during the playoffs when he’s recapping his own games. But between him and Kevin Durant’s (who also hosts a pod I listen to) obsession with the media voting on awards is equal parts stale and disingenuous.
In 2015, the NBA Players Union, as a response to the grievances with the media voting on awards, had The Player’s Choice Awards. In 2015, as Steph Curry was breaking everything we knew before about basketball, they decided to give the MVP to James Harden.
What happened next? They just disappeared. Anyone who has ever looked at the results of player voting for the All-Star teams can tell you that they don’t take this any more seriously than the media does. And another reason they removed the player’s choice awards is this: it’s easier to be mad at the media than it is to do their job. So they left it to the media again.
So, as far as Draymond and KD’s gripes about awards are concerned, they only have their fellow players to blame for not taking their own awards seriously. But that’s a conversation that will never go down. Because why blame your fellow players when media members who you don’t know are sitting right there to shit on instead?