Play-In Fever Is Real No Matter What You Want
We can no longer dismiss the Blazers making the play-in. After a win over Memphis, they're only two games out.
These last five years of Blazers basketball haven’t been easy. And for some, like myself, who fantasized about the Blazers possibly landing Cooper Flagg–or even VJ Edgecombe–the Blazers unexpected arrival into the Western Conference playoff picture might be the most painful moment of all.
But what is becoming clear is that everyone’s preseason prognostications and hopes for lottery glory have zero relevance now. And it’s time to start addressing this team where they are now, not in the multiverse of possibilities people had in mind before the season.
After Wednesday night’s win, your Portland Trail Blazers are now only two games behind the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns for the 10th and final spot in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament.
The Mavericks have had so many injuries that they may be forced to forfeit games due to an odd quirk in the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement. And their loss to Indiana on Wednesday–where Dallas missed clutch free-throws and coughed up a 3-point lead in the final seconds with a last second turnover–was the kind of divine intervention from the basketball gods that makes you really believe Portland might actually do this. Dallas is expected to get Anthony Davis back next week and he’s been excellent this season, but can he prevent their cursed season from completely flaming out?
As far as the Phoenix side of things, the Blazers (20-18) have a better record than the Suns (18-20) in 2025. Of Phoenix’s final 12 games, 10 of them are against teams above .500. As we have seen for most of 2025, despite the Suns star power, winning games is a tall order. Against good teams, even more so. Meanwhile, the Blazers have six of their final 12 games against sub-.500 opponents. Both Portland and Phoenix have struggled against above-.500 teams and both have made their money against losing teams.
I’m not usually a big Strength of Schedule guy when it comes to the NBA, mostly because I think travel and playing the same opponents will eventually balance things out. But in this case, it’s hard not to say that the schedule isn’t on Portland’s side, especially given Phoenix has struggled against good teams as much as the Blazers have.
Not to mention that the Blazers are actually happy to be in this position. The same can’t be said for the Suns who, despite beating the Bulls on Wednesday, look like they’d all rather be on a yacht than grind to make the Play-In. Portland’s guys, like Anfernee Simons, who has endured three of the most disgusting tank jobs we’ve ever seen, couldn’t be happier to potentially postpone his vacation.
“The last couple of years, around this time, it’s been like alright when is the season going to end,” Simons said after scoring 22 points on Wednesday. “Now it’s a good feeling. Just going in there and knowing at this point every game matters and we need to lock in and do whatever it takes to win. No matter what it looks like.”
Wednesday night’s win looked pretty good. The Blazers frustrated Grizzlies star forward Jaren Jackson Jr. by throwing different bodies at him all night long and things came to a boiling point in the fourth quarter, with Jackson picking up a technical foul in frustration. Once Jackson cracked, the game was over and Memphis never got the Blazers lead below 10. Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan, Duop Reath, you name it, they probably guarded him. And made his life hell.
Portland had open 3s for days and bullied the veteran Grizzlies 65-40 on the glass.
Up next for Portland will be a Denver Nuggets team that has rested their star player Nikola Jokic for the last two games. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if they rested him again. As the Nuggets gear up for the postseason, giving their MVP a full week of rest isn’t the worst idea. The Nuggets didn’t even bother to send Jokic and Murray to Portland with the team during their late-season trip here last season, so it’s not like they haven’t done it before.
And did I mention 9th-seeded Sacramento, the team Portland is vying to play against, just saw star center Domantas Sabonis go down with an injury that will keep him out at least the next 10 days?
At a certain point, we have to accept the facts as they are, not what we wish them to be. If the trends of the 2025 Blazers hold true, it’s not just possible, but likely the Blazers will head to Sacramento for the 9-10 game. If they win, another city after that. Winning a game against Sacramento is one thing, but winning a game against Minnesota, the Clippers, or Golden State is probably above this team’s weight class.
Hanging over all of this is that if the Blazers pull off the impossible and win two play-in games like the 2022 Pelicans did as the 10-seed, they’ll have to send their 2025 Draft pick to the Chicago Bulls as part of the god forsaken Derrick Jones Jr. and a protected first round pick for Larry Nance Jr. trade. One last parting gift from the Olshey Era. Fortunately for the hopes of keeping the pick, beating Minnesota, the Clippers or even Golden State feels next to impossible.
But then again, making the play-in seemed impossible too.