Post-Draft/Early Free Agency thoughts

Erik looks at Portland's Draft Day moves, the chess board and what some of the Blazers are up to in international play.

Whether it’s the NBA, your career, your daily life, or a board game, sometimes the choice that you don’t make is what saves you. For the Blazers, they held onto players like Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Robert Williams at the trade deadline. And holding onto them has allowed them to get to today, where it seems like anything is possible.

Rather than trade Brogdon for second round picks, they elected to package Brogdon with the 14th pick and the 2nd most favorable of their picks in 2029 to the Wizards to bring in Deni Advija, who if he continues on on the path of improvement he was on last year, figures to be a very useful two-way player on a very team-friendly contract. Only 23, he will likely continue to improve. Whether his 3-point shooting continues to improve, or at least sustains at the level it was last year (above 37%), will probably be the bell-weather for value on the contract. His poor 3-point shooting in his first three seasons is why his contract currently seems like a value. Anytime a player has a 3-point shooting season that is an outlier compared to the rest of his career, it’s exciting, but also a little concerning, because what if that player reverts back to who they’ve been?

With all of that said, Advija is probably the best they could do in the market of “swings on a wing player under 25.” Getting, say, Orlando’s Franz Wagner in a trade, never seemed realistic. The most generous way to look at it: Advija is basically a poor man’s Franz Wagner. Wagner had a horrible a 3-point shooting season last year and still has a better career 3P% than Advija. But still, Advija guards his man, he can make plays with the ball in his hands, he rebounds the ball well and he can set guys up with his passing. But while I think it was a worthwhile move for Portland, I would like to reserve the right to call it a slam dunk until we see further evidence.

By getting Advija on the wing, they also made it less crucial that they draft a wing player in the 2024 draft. With the Blazers looking at a future Western Conference where you have to go up against Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, to say nothing of Nikola Jokic and the massive Minnesota frontline, the Blazers selected Donovan Clingan, the defensive anchor of a back-to-back National Championship squad at UCONN.

And with Deandre Ayton, Clingan’s biggest weakness, only playing about 20 minutes per game due to what it takes to run that 7-3 frame up and down the court, is less of a concern. With all due respect to Duop Reath, the Blazers were simply a different team without Ayton on the court. With Clingan, Portland can play a similar style of play no matter which center is on the court. That kind of consistency in the middle, when it comes to having guys who are a threat on the roll and can catch lobs could be a major benefit to Portland’s guards.

For what it’s worth, Portland was 26th out of 30 teams in screen assists, according to NBA.com’s tracking stats. Some of that is due to the fact Ayton slipped a lot of screens, but some of that was also due to the fact Portland’s screeners didn’t have a lot of girth. Clingan helps add more of that dimension.

With the Advija and Clingan moves, as well as picking up Dalano Banton’s option, the Blazers have all 15 guaranteed roster spots filled. That means that the only moves currently available to them for the rest of free agency are via trade. While I’m ultimately positive on the moves they made at the draft, it does seem like there are still some moves that could be done.

Jerami Grant rumors

Since the start of free agency, Jerami Grant has dominated the rumor mill. While LeBron James has agreed to a max contract, the Lakers still have some time to make another move or two before. And the Lakers are the team most connected to Grant. Perhaps it’s no shock, given that Grant is represented by LeBron’s agent and best friend, Rich Paul of Klutch Sports. According to Lakers reporter/podcaster Anthony Irwin, Joe Cronin is holding firm on his asking price from the Lakers for Grant: two first round picks.

And when you zoom out, asking for two first round picks isn’t just about Grant. It’s also about the cost of moving him out for lesser players. If Portland were to do a deal with the Lakers, some combination of D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura would be involved.

And none of the four are exactly enticing assets. Vanderbilt (4 years left, including a player option) and Vincent (2 years left) both have major health concerns after both missed most of last season. Russell would simply be in the way of Portland’s other guards and his expiring contract does little for a market like Portland with no history of landing free agents. And Hachimura, the best player of the bunch, plays the same position as Toumani Camara but makes way more money. Just a few years ago, the Lakers got Hachimura for three second round picks and Kendrick Nunn, who is currently playing in Greece. Not to mention that after Hachimura had some great playoff moments in 2023, he was completely missing in action during the 2024 playoffs. There’s a reason the Lakers want to move off of him.

In short, Portland isn’t going to be writing home about any of the above. Even if Mike Schmitz was high on Hachimura in the draft, his inclusion is a nice to have, not the prize. Also, the sense that the NBA is wide open only encourages Portland to hold firm on their price.

After Dallas made the Finals following some big deadline moves, several teams could convince themselves they’re a Jerami Grant away from a Finals run like the one the Mavericks just had. The NBA’s Parity Era is here and Portland is currently in a position to take advantage of the belief most of the league has: why not us?

Patience, just like it was at the deadline, is Portland’s best play here. They don’t have to get off Grant’s contract as much as people in the national media tell you they do. Because those people have a vested interest in making sure their regular trips to L.A. feature high quality basketball, not the reality show that preceded LeBron’s arrival. And as much as I actually think Bronny James could be a useful NBA player, the Lakers drafting him will only contribute to the circus-like atmosphere. Will the Lakers decide they are a basketball team or be content being L.A.’s celebrity house of mirrors? That is the kind of pressure the Lakers are under and as far as Grant on the Blazers, he’s a great veteran who is a good locker room presence who gets buckets. Keeping Grant to give their young guards and big man help is an asset, not a liability.

If Portland is able to secure two Lakers picks in a deal for Grant, while giving LeBron and the Lakers a much-needed two-way player with size, then their partnership with Klutch, which has only grown under Cronin, will have given something back to the Blazers after a few years of Klutch-friendly business.

Paris DominAyton???

While free agency slop is dominating the news cycle, I’ve been enjoying some absolutely bonkers FIBA action in the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments that are currently going on. On Wednesday, Croatia was upset by New Zealand just a day after blowing out Luka Doncic and Slovenia and Latvia lost to the Philippines in what many considered the biggest upset in FIBA history. Nearly joining them, Spain and Lithuania barely avoided major upsets to Angola and Ivory Coast, respectively.

The only team that seems to be handling their business is the one everyone expected: Deandre Ayton’s Bahamas squad. With Ayton in the middle alongside Buddy Hield, Eric Gordon and 2025 guard VJ Edgecombe (maybe a future Blazer?), the Bahamas squad has covered the spread in each of their first two games. Greece is the only other team that can say that in the OQT.

Playing in Spain, the Bahamas was a +400 underdog to qualify from this OQT. After two games, it seems clear to me that the Bahamas is the best team in the group. Whether they actually make good on that promise will determine whether they make it to Paris or not. But with several NBA guards and Ayton in the middle, Spain doesn’t have the size to hang with Ayton nor do they have the quickness to handle Edgecombe. Spain, with all due respect, is washed. If the Bahamas can actually leverage their advantages, a summer in Paris is in the cards.

Bahamas has to win two more games, one on Friday against Angola or Lebanon and then one more on Sunday against the winner of Spain vs. Finland/Poland. There is still basketball to be played, but Ayton and his Bahamas squad look like they could earn a surprise invite to Paris, which would be a nice added bonus to watching the Olympic basketball tournament for Blazers fans.