Rumble Pt. 4

Can Milwaukee win 70 games?

Welcome back to our rumble across the NBA.

Part 1: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls.

Part 2: Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons.

Part 3: Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies.

Miami Heat – Still only a year removed from an impressive run to the NBA Finals in the Orlando Bubble, the Heat are one of the few teams who occupy “The Prestige Zone.” Teams whose minor moves are generally lauded as a stroke of genius. This is in large part due to their success with LeBron James and their ability to remain competitive following his departure, as well as Pat Riley’s league-wide gravitas. There are precious few teams who enjoy the yearly benefit of the doubt as Miami does.

And for the most part, they’ve earned it. In the offseason, they once again outdid themselves by trading for Raptors legend Kyle Lowry to form a backcourt of All-Star junkyard dogs with him and Jimmy Butler. Bam Adebayo is also an All-Star, giving the Heat a legitimate Big 3, which may be the best defensive Big 3 in the league. But while Lowry adds playmaking and big-time 3-point shooting, they’re also hoping that the legendary “Heat Culture” can turn some of their minimum salary guys into something more than that.

Namely, Victor Oladipo is a player of great intrigue among their crop of veterans. While a great deal of press will go to whether Tyler Herro can somehow find the form he discovered in the bubble, which helped Miami make the Finals, Oladipo has had his eyes on Miami for years and now has his chance. While injuries have hampered him if Miami was the place he needed to be and the Heat return to their 2020 form of Eastern Conference contenders, it will earn Miami an extended stay in “The Prestige Zone.”

Milwaukee Bucks – The Champ Is Here. And now that they’ve gotten the proverbial monkey off their back by beating the Miami Heat on their way to winning a title, the Bucks are where the scientific part of my brain leans when considering the contenders in the East. Of course, I love betting on the Celtics, but the Bucks are the team who can not only return to the kind of 60-win pace we are used to, they will also likely be an even tougher out in the springtime when games matter even more. Shit, they might win 70 games.

The kind of confidence a championship gives you is unique and an underrated part of Golden State’s 73-9 season. But that kind of confidence also draws attention and the East will be even more motivated and prepared to compete with Milwaukee. Still, Giannis will only grow into his game even more while still mastering his dominance in the paint.

Right now the Oregon Scoreboard App line has the Bucks at 54.5, an over which I love. What else can I say? They’re the champs! While the Nets are the favorite and the Celtics are my dark horse, the smart money should be on Milwaukee to win the East. However, I’m still holding onto Bubble Theory. And since the Bucks went on a marathon, including sending Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday to the Olympics, a repeat won’t be quite as difficult as what the Lakers faced last season, but it will be a more difficult title defense than most NBA champions have faced due to another compressed offseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves – Once again, the Minnesota Timberwolves couldn’t get out of their own way. Just weeks before training camp, the Timberwolves fired President of Basketball Operations Gerrson Rosas after a short tenure and now Karl Anthony Towns is tasked with leading another team in turmoil.

The Wolves have a lot of great talent, led by Towns. D’Angelo Russell was once an All-Star in the East and his friendship with Towns was a big reason why he was acquired in the first place. But the best hope for the Wolves to go from a consistent basement dweller to a team that gets to the vicinity of the play-in game, how those two pieces work with second-year lottery pick and reliable source of smiles, Anthony Edwards.

Edwards has shown a great ability to finish in traffic and on the nights where he got hot from the outside, he demonstrated the archetype that made him a No. 1 pick, scoring at all three levels while also wreaking havoc on the glass with his strong frame. The other great thing about Edwards is there is a non-zero chance he had no idea who Rosas was other than just being a nameless team staffer who dressed well. Even though he’s technically Gen Z, Edwards is definitely the player most likely not to have the internet behind James Harden.

New Orleans Pelicans – If you’ve read this far and remember my first team entry on the Atlanta Hawks, I referred to an unnamed phenomenon among the NBA media to anoint teams ahead of their team. But in the case of the New Orleans Pelicans, it was not just the media who put the cart before the horse on their ascent to relevance: the league office was just as much, if not more to blame, for their sudden relevance and repeated appearances on National TV.

Yes, Zion Williamson is definitely one of the most exciting and unique young players in the league. But since he was drafted, both the league office and the Pelicans front office sold a product to the public that demanded attention but has not earned it. Williamson’s health has held the Pelicans back, but so has his lack of defensive presence when he is on the court, as well as the choices for players to surround him with.

Williamson puts up numbers and efficiency that are unheard-of at his age. The addition of Jonas Valanciunas should also give the Pelicans a more reliable source of points and steady defense when Williamson misses games. Williamson will miss games, by the way, as there is still no return date for him recovering from a broken foot. But can we see some form of consistent winning before expecting anything from these guys?

While Brandon Ingram has also been a solid performer and All-Star, the Pelicans effectively swapped Lonzo Ball for Devonte’ Graham, a loss on both ends despite Graham’s ability to stretch the defense with deep 3s. It will be on first-year head coach Willie Green to find consistency from a team that has failed to show any over the last two years.

With Williamson reportedly on the clock already and the most likely rookie extension candidate to turn it down in recent memory, 2021-22 already has more of the same bad vibes that have hung over the Pelicans since Anthony Davis asked out.

New York Knicks – The Knicks are a popular candidate to regress after last year’s team surpassed every reasonable expectation. Even when considering the general holistic improvements that happen under Tom Thibodeau during his first year with a team, few could have expected such a monstrous leap from Julius Randle. Randle went from productive starter to All-Star who takes and makes some of the toughest shots the Knicks needed.

Randle transformed himself as a defender, becoming even more dedicated to the defensive end under Thibodeau. The Knicks also had great rim protectors, like Nerlens Noel and Mitchell Robinson, before Robinson got hurt. They also got an unexpectedly great season out of Derrick Rose and timely shots from Alec Burks seemingly all season long.

But the biggest hope for optimism in New York isn’t whether Randle can continue his All-Star level play but whether RJ Barrett can join him as an All-Star talent. More than anyone else on the Knicks roster, Barrett has the potential, not only to keep New York in the playoff picture but to give them the type of firepower to win in the playoffs. He started to show more confidence from the 3-point line last season and if that merges with his strong package of finishing moves around the rim and ability to post-up smaller players, the Knicks may not fall off at all.

But if all else fails, Thibodeau will coach a defense that will at least keep them in the play-in zone if plans for growth don’t result as New York hoped.