Trick or Treat: Blazers show some sweetness in mixed bag
The early season has had some growth amidst the pain of their lack of shooting.
While the season started off with a historically bad loss at home for the Portland Trail Blazers, what they have shown is that they’re willing to bounce back. And even in some cases, we’ve seen growth that everyone was hoping for from players like Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray (he made a 3! in a game!) and Rayan Rupert. The Blazers have also gotten some strong scoring performances from Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons, but mostly the way they have played since opening night is giving us a reason to watch.
Obviously, Game 1 was horrible and the Blazers were getting outhustled on top of all their other shortcomings, most notably shooting from the outside. And their competitiveness on a nightly basis greatly relies on Grant and Simons making shots. But in the subsequent four games, they’ve had some encouraging things to look at and watch for moving forward.
Scoot stringing some positive games together
I was pretty disappointed in Scoot’s Game 1 performance and wrote as much, saying that it looked like he was making many of the same mistakes when driving about not knowing which decision to make. When I saw him a couple days later at the second New Orleans game, Henderson was 2 for 12 but played a very good floor game dishing six assists and posting a game-high +20 in +/-, a stat which has often been used to highlight his struggles.
Overall, he has looked better in knowing when to attack and when to use his speed to blow by slower opponents. The results have been a significant uptick in drives, with Henderson ranking first in the league in total drives so far this season with 94 drives, while shooting 48.6% on those drives, according to NBA.com tracking stats. In terms of drives per game, Scoot is 5th in the league behind Zion Williamson, Jalen Brunson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dejounte Murray, who of course, have all made an All-Star team in their career.
According to Cleaning The Glass, Henderson currently ranks in the 32nd percentile among guards in effective field goal percentage, which may not sound very good, but is a far cry from last season where he was just in the 7th percentile.
Now, these are just encouraging indicators rather than signs of improvement that will stick. But you can start to see the player many envisioned Scoot to be the moment he showed up in the NBA: pushing the pace, attacking the rim and making the game easier for his teammates. After how rough Game 1 was for Scoot, he’s found a way to make an impact on games while also showing signs of improvement with his decision-making and efficiency. Part of it is that when he’s on the court, he’s also taking more charge of what’s going on.
I don’t hate Ant and Scoot together as much anymore
Another reason Portland has been able to stay with teams when their bench goes in the game is that Anfernee Simons has shown more of a willingness to let Scoot run the show, allowing Simons to function more as a pure scorer than the guy who had to do everything for the Blazers on every possession last year. I don’t know how that conversation happened, but some understanding has been reached, with Henderson playing as the point guard organizing everyone else, while Simons is allowed to cook like he used to next to Dame.
Small sample size caveats aside, lineups with Henderson and Simons together have only been outscored by 3 points over the first five games. Last season, the Blazers got torched with that duo on the floor, posting a -241 in only 37 games of action. I asked Simons about moving off the ball with Scoot on the floor after the Golden State game and the results have only gotten better since then.
“It’s just a different look,” Simons said. “Obviously you got guys who can pass the ball in Deni and Scoot. I can shoot it well off the ball too so we’re just using that to our advantage. With the amount of attention I get offensively, if they' hugging me on the wing, they got free driving lanes on my side and that just helps everybody else out.”
Avdija’s impact
It’s a good thing Deni Avdija made that late chasedown block last night because the Mario Hezonja comparisons were already getting out of control. Let me start by saying that Avdija is clearly an additive player and the Blazers have outscored their opponents so far when he’s been on the court. He’s been an unselfish passer, he’s great at running the floor both ways and he is a rugged defender. Particularly when it comes to on-ball defense, the Hezonja comparisons fall flat, as Avdija might already be Portland’s best on-ball defender.
However, it is a major issue if he can’t shoot any better, considering how many of their other players are question marks from distance. The positives are the same as when they traded him: he’s young and on an affordable contract, but as I wrote when they traded for him, the reason his contract is a bargain is because he’s been a bad 3-point shooter for the majority of his career. Last year he was in the 95th percentile in corner 3%, but he has never ranked higher than the 34th percentile or better from the corners in any other season.
There’s still plenty of time in the season and perhaps the best way to look at it is this: Avdija has had impactful moments and has been a net-positive on the floor as it is, if he ever makes outside shots then Portland’s trade price is very worthwhile. But if he doesn’t, people will say the Blazers got fleeced by Washington and it will be hard to disagree. His shooting should bounce back somewhat, but becoming an above-average 3-point shooter seems to be a doubtful proposition.
Clingan cooking
Another reason why the Blazers bench units with Scoot have been so much fun has been the rapidly developing chemistry with Donovan Clingan. Clingan is easy for guys to play with and is impactful offensively for several reasons: he’s a willing screener, an unselfish passer and a vertical lob threat that most teams have to respect simply because of his size.
One of the more jarring moments of the Clingan experience is just looking at the players guarding him. On Sunday night, he made Zion Williamson and Yves Missi look too small by comparison. Clingan was also instrumental in helping force Williamson into a 2 for 9 first half in Portland’s win Sunday, including two blocks on Williamson, regarded as one of the league’s best finishers at the rim.
5 Games In
Ultimately, the Blazers are only five games in and everything I just wrote above could be moot a month from now. But considering where they were after the first game, the players and coach Chauncey Billups deserve credit for this team being not only watchable, but competitive most nights so far this season. For a young team that is still searching for an identity, being a frisky team that can annoy teams with more pertinent present day agendas is an enjoyable and entertaining role for this young team to play.