After Good Homestand, Portland's Play-In Hopes + Lottery Odds Both Get A Boost
Boston and Cleveland threw cold water on Portland's play-in hopes. But Chicago, Miami and San Antonio also improved their lottery odds.
We live in paradoxical times. And the Portland Trail Blazers are no exception. At the same time the Blazers did better than expected over a four-game stretch against playoff teams, they have also seen their chances of getting a high draft pick increase, thanks to some unexpected wins over the past few days from Chicago, Miami and San Antonio.
It’s an NBA axiom that you can only control what you can control. Yet, the things Portland can’t control are sending mixed messages.
Before the Blazers started their most recent four-game stretch at home against playoff teams, I thought one win would be enough to keep their play-in hopes alive. That they won two games was an upset. But despite the fact they performed above expectation, as they have for all of 2025, the Phoenix Suns are now 3.5 games ahead of the Blazers for the 10th and final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, thanks the Suns racking up two unexpected wins over Cleveland and Milwaukee.
And really, the Blazers have to make up 4.5 games. Because Phoenix and Portland split the season series 2-2, the next tiebreaker is conference record, where the Suns have a five-game advantage over the Blazers.
While it remains true that Phoenix has a tougher remaining schedule than Portland, with eight of their next 10 games against playoff teams, Phoenix’s last two wins over playoff teams have helped create distance that may be too much to overcome. With only nine games left, Portland has to be nearly perfect down the stretch and hope the Suns go on a losing skid to make things interesting. And that’s without mentioning that Anthony Davis’ return is no longer a hypothetical, as he led the Mavs to a blowout win over Brooklyn on Monday. As of this writing, the Mavs are only a half-game behind Phoenix.
All of the above brings me back to something that seemed dead only five days ago but is coming back to life: Portland’s hopes of landing a high lottery pick. Maybe, just maybe, the lottery gods will still have their day in the City of Portland.
The Chicago Bulls have won three straight, including two road games against Western Conference contenders in L.A. and Denver, putting them a half-game ahead of Portland in the standings. The Miami Heat, after losing 10 straight games, are now winners of back-to-back games following their Revenge Victory over Jimmy Butler and the Golden State Warriors. And the San Antonio Spurs, despite being without De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama, have won three of their last four games and have the 6th ranked offense in the NBA over the last two weeks, according to Cleaning The Glass.
As a result of those wins from Chicago, Miami and San Antonio, the Bulls have passed the Blazers in the standings and Portland now is only a 1/2 game behind San Antonio for the 8th worst record in the league. And that 8th worst record in the league is an important spot: with the 8th worst record in the league, the odds of getting a top-four pick are nearly double what they are from the 10th spot, jumping from 13.9% to 26.2%.
Isn’t that a trip? In the same time frame that the Blazers went 2-2 against better teams, they also saw their chances of getting a high pick increase.
Up next for the Blazers is a five-game road trip that will take them to Sacramento, New York, Atlanta, Toronto and Chicago. All of them are winnable games. You’ve got teams who are either mediocre (Sacramento, Atlanta, Chicago), tanking (Toronto), or are banged up and biding their time for the playoffs (New York).
While re-igniting their play-in hopes will be the goal of the players in the locker room and head coach Chauncey Billups, the front office could look at the standings and the lottery odds and see an opportunity of a different kind.
The Blazers are indeed living in paradoxical times. Which way will they go?
Notes
Deni Avdija has been Portland’s best player all season long, but the last two games were a reality check about how good your team can ultimately be if he is your best player. And there’s no shame in this realization: Cleveland and Boston have been two of the three best teams in the league all season. It is OK for a rebuilding team like Portland to be worse than two championship contenders. But as great as it was to see Avdija dominate against a good Memphis team and a Denver team that dominated Portland not too long ago, seeing him come back to earth against Cleveland and Boston was clarifying. The Blazers trade for Avdija was an absolute slam dunk, but the limitations of your team if he is your best player are evident when you see him try to go at elite talents like Jayson Tatum and Evan Mobley. His physicality, which is super imposing against 90% of the league, doesn’t seem quiet as imposing against elite talents like Tatum and Mobley. While the Blazers front office deserves a lot of credit for bringing Avdija in, the last two games were a reminder that if he’s your best offensive player, there’s a clear ceiling to how good you can be.
I know that Chauncey Billups benching Shaedon Sharpe was a bit of a controversy a few weeks ago, but the benching has been beneficial for both Sharpe and the Blazers. Ever since Billups took Sharpe out of the lineup in January, Sharpe has made a concerted effort to be more engaged on the defensive end and he’s earned his way back into the starting lineup. The trust Billups has in Sharpe has grown, with no better example than Billups going to bat Sharpe in the fourth quarter by chewing out referee Evan Scott and picking up a technical foul for what he thought was a bad no-call during Sharpe’s drive midway through the fourth quarter with Portland down 106-104. After the uncalled foul, Cleveland went down to their end and made a 3-pointer to make it 109-104. After that, the Blazers didn’t get any closer.
Billups on the no-call: “We get it to two with 6:20 left, I really thought Shaedon got fouled going to the rim. There was a no-call, they go down and score, it’s at five again. So you know, tough breaks. It was a big, big moment. Huge moment in the game. We are fighting up hill the whole game and we’re finally there.”
Just before the Blazers played, news broke from the Milwaukee Bucks that the team found a blood clot in Damian Lillard’s calf. The Bucks also announced that Lillard is on blood thinners to resolve the issue, effectively ending his season. Thankfully, the Bucks found the blood clot issue before it could cause any complications that are bigger than basketball. But man, what a run of shit luck for Lillard on the basketball front ever since getting to Milwaukee. Contending for championships was the goal when Lillard left and in any championship run, luck has to be on your side. And since arriving in Milwaukee, the Bucks have had some really bad luck. Between Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury just before the playoffs last season, Khris Middleton’s knee troubles and this obstacle, luck simply has not been on Milwaukee’s side.
After a rough game against Boston, it was nice to see Scoot Henderson bounce back against the Cavaliers. Henderson had 18 points, six rebounds and six assists, including a lob to Shaedon Sharpe in the second half. Henderson is always geeked when Sharpe does something cool and he was happy to be a part of it, even if he wishes he made a better pass. “I thought he was going to windmill that dunk. We just talked about that (in the locker room). I thought he was going to windmill that because I threw it low and I was like ‘oh, he can windmill that.’ He told just keep playing it safe and I’m like ‘alright bet, that’s cool, that’s cool.’”
Even before Henderson kicked his game into a higher gear in 2025, one of the strengths that showed when he was on the court was making sure the team was organized. While the Golden State Warriors brought the term “random basketball” into vogue, even the Warriors themselves have said they want to be more organized. While Henderson may struggle at times with execution, he excels at both organizing his teammates and while also being thoughtful about how to let his teammates do what they do best. “I want to make sure we’re playing good and for me, it’s team success for all of us to continue to play well, to go out there every game to get better,” Henderson said. “And as far as the future, us getting to know each other on the court and just reading each other better. Where Shae likes the ball, he likes to go left to right. D.C. (Donovan Clingan) doesn’t like low passes. He likes the lob pass, whether it’s a finish or another kick out for him. Just things like that, which comes with experience and just playing together. But it’s fun, I’ll tell you that.”