Blazers at the break + revisiting preseason over-unders
On the Blazers coming back down to earth and the curious case of Shaedon Sharpe. Plus: the awful truth of Erik's preseason over-under picks.
Following the runners high of the Blazers winning 10 of 11 games, the Blazers and fans have been doused by an ice bath. A quiet trade deadline, three straight double-digit losses to close out the pre-All-Star portion of the season and the loss of Deandre Ayton have all been sobering reminders that this is all still a work in progress. And that’s before we get to the curious case of Shaedon Sharpe.
There’s no doubt that Portland’s winning stretch brought some much-needed energy back to the team. And even if Chauncey Billups won’t be here long term, he did get the team to commit to a defense-first identity that sparked their stretch of strong play. That stretch also made it tougher to see Ayton go down with injury, since he was a driving force behind their improved play, both on the court and in the locker room. Portland had the best defense in the league during their 10-1 stretch and having success driven by defense is probably the biggest reason behind Sharpe getting leapfrogged by Kris Murray in the starting lineup in Wednesday’s game
Chauncey Billups told The Athletic’s Jason Quick recently that he didn’t want Sharpe to “become a 22-point-per-game scorer” who “doesn’t care about giving up 25.” And this is the crux of the benching.
If holding everybody accountable was the reason behind Portland’s best stretch of play, that accountability also has to include Sharpe. We don’t have to look far in Blazers history to see the problems that can arise from applying different levels of accountability to players for their defensive responsibilities. Trying to uphold a standard on that end is part of this franchise’s years-long quest to create an identity. And the frustrating part of it is that Sharpe has shown the ability to be a great defender, especially when he gets a little angry. There’s a reason why everybody on the Blazers likes it when Shaedon is a little ticked off.
Perhaps seeing players who aren’t as talented as he is play over him will be something that motivates Sharpe to pour more into the defensive side of the ball. At the very least, it’s something worth trying.
The good news is Sharpe will definitely get more opportunities as the season winds down to show he can be a more consistent contributor on defense. The less good news is, Sharpe is eligible for an extension this summer and his tantalizing potential isn’t matching up with consistency on the court the way you’d like in his third year.
But while there will be plenty of time for Sharpe to try and finish his season on a high-note, the injury to Ayton makes it highly unlikely Portland’s season creates any more feelings like the ones they created in January and early February. The injury to Ayton actually allows this season to be what most of us envisioned all along: an exercise in player development that keeps them in the mix to get lucky in the draft lottery.
With the NBA having an even closer eye on stealth tanking measures, Ayton’s re-evaluation takes him to mid-March. Given the sensitive nature of calf strains and how they can often be connected to achilles tendon injuries, it’s more likely than not that Ayton has played his last game this season. Luka Doncic just took six weeks to get back from his and he still doesn’t look close to 100%. Rushing back Ayton would be irresponsible both for his long-term health and the long-term health of the franchise.
Speaking of the long-term health of the franchise, before we get to my bad over-under picks, we have to talk about the trade deadline.
Portland didn’t move their veterans at the deadline, but did you see what it cost teams to move deals for non-All-Star players making 17-30 million dollars? The Memphis Grizzlies had to give up a first round pick to unload the last year and change of Marcus Smart’s contract on the Wizards. The Hawks had to give up three second round picks to dump the remaining two years on Bogdan Bogdanovic’s contract. And the Phoenix Suns had to offload a first round pick to move the final year and change of Jusuf Nurkic’s contract.
As a reminder to those reading: Jerami Grant has three years left, including a player option, making significantly more money per year than either Smart, Bogdanovic or Nurkic. So, it stands to reason that the price for Portland to move his contract would be at least in the range of the above deals. Given the years and money per year left, it’s probably even more reasonable to expect the cost to move Grant’s deal to be significantly higher than those above deals.
Portland also cannot trade any of their own first round picks due to the pick obligations owed to Chicago for the Derrick Jones Jr. for Larry Nance trade in 2021. So if Portland were to give up a pick to move someone on their team, they would have to give up the picks/pick swaps they received from Boston or Milwaukee in 2028-2030. Portland made their bed by making this deal when Lillard was on his way out, but the only thing worse than the deal itself would be giving up their best assets to undo the mistake, without getting anything else back in return.
Perhaps a suitor for Grant emerges in the summer and all of this is moot. But a future where he comes back to this team, perhaps in a bench role, is something this team may have to consider if the price to move him remains prohibitive. Grant is also a good vet to have around, is a generally chill guy and has been extremely supportive of Portland’s young players. The Grant deal was initially sold as one they could eventually flip later for value and it’s becoming increasingly clear that’s not true. But there are far worse realities than having a guy like Grant in the locker room for a young team.
For Anfernee Simons, who is a vet in NBA years but is only 25, his case becomes a little more interesting as he enters the final year of his contract next season. Jusuf Nurkic is putting the full court press on for his former teammate by trying to get the Orlando Magic to trade for Simons, a team that has long been seen as a Simons suitor, due to their lack of 3-point shooting and his ties to the Orlando area. Not to mention that he was literally named after Orlando Magic legend Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway.
But it’s clearly not that simple, either. The Magic did nothing at the deadline to address their horrible 3-point shooting and the Luka trade has caused many around the league to wonder about the status of other supposed franchise players like Devin Booker, Trae Young and LaMelo Ball. Players who the Magic would presumably try to go after first before making a move for Simons.
So while the Blazers have shown signs of life and things are feeling better around here thanks to the #Scootissance, Toumani Camara’s incredible play and Clingan starting to show some offensive juice to go with his defense, when it comes to the poker table of NBA transactions, the Blazers aren’t holding a great hand at the table.
However, the Blazers front office has been rewarded for their patience as of late. The last two big transactions the Blazers have made, the Dame trade and the Deni Avdija trade, have given the Blazers positive feedback for their patience.
In the case of the Dame trade, they held out and didn’t succumb to the Heat’s media war tactics, getting back juicy Milwaukee and Boston draft capital when their stars are aging, as well as Toumani Camara. And in the case of the Avdija trade, Portland was rewarded for holding Malcolm Brogdon through the last trade deadline, rather than trying to offload him simply for some picks. The result of that patience has been Avdjia becoming Portland’s best player this season. So while there are plenty of things to say this front office got wrong before, their decision-making process has also been validated lately.
If only my over-under picks for this season gave me such validation.
Over-Under Autopsy
I’m going to start off with what I got right about my over-unders, mostly because there’s not much to celebrate. I expect to go above .500 at the very least and this year I’ll be lucky if I can break even on my picks.
Memphis OVER, Cleveland OVER, Dallas UNDER and Toronto UNDER are the only picks I really love today.
But it’s the teams I felt the strongest about that have made me feel like a total fool. Believing in Charlotte to be nothing less than a joke was a mistake and while the Hawks looked the part when Jalen Johnson was in the lineup, his season-ending shoulder injury ruined their hopes to do something big.
Golden State had me feeling like a guru with my OVER 44.5 wins pick early in the season and maybe Jimmy Butler sparks them to hit 45 wins, but I don’t feel very good about that pick today. The other team I definitely overly respected was the Phoenix Suns. While the addition of Coach Budenholzer looked like a difference-maker given his previous stops, the Suns are too flawed of a roster to really let Coach Bud’s magic work. There’s no way Phoenix is sniffing 48 wins.
And then we have to look at the teams that I underestimated: the Knicks and the Clippers. The Knicks look every bit the part of an Eastern Conference contender, even with their depth concerns, and it would be a shock if they don’t win 55 games now.
I’ve learned my lesson the hard way with the Clippers: never underestimate Ty Lue and James Harden ever again. Harden may not be able to do what he did in his MVP days, but he’s still playing at an All-Star level. And former Blazer Norman Powell is one of the frontrunners for Most Improved Player. I also had no idea that Jeff Van Gundy’s arrival to the Clippers coaching staff would have such a massive impact on their defense. The Clippers not only look like a playoff team, but if the NBA’s biggest if happens and Kawhi Leonard is healthy for a playoff run, they’re a dark horse to potentially win the West.
Enjoy the All-Star break.