Erik's Top 10 NBA Over-Unders
For the third year in a row, Erik is giving out his over-under picks as a way to set the stage for the upcoming NBA season.
The NBA is finally back and as has become tradition, I am back to deliver my top 10 NBA over-under bets for the 2024-25 season. Once again, the Blazers are firmly in tank position as almost everybody is pegging them to finish last in the Western Conference.
Maybe they can win enough games to hit their over or 20.5, but that’s just not very fun to bet on, so you will not see them in my 10 choices. I’m very excited for Clingan in the limited minutes he will play and they’ve been on the good side of a couple of preseason blowouts. However, I’m also starting to lose faith every day that they will actually be able to get what they’re wishing for when it comes to trading Robert Williams. And did I mention Shaedon Sharpe has a torn labrum but is still expected to play this season?
Yeah, there’s too much that’s already fraught with the Blazers for me to want any action on their number. For those who need a refresher on the concept: my friend Brock gets a group of friends together to pick our 10 favorite NBA over-unders, which include five picks worth double called SUPER picks. Two years ago, I won with a 6-4 record, including hitting all 5 of my SUPER picks. Last year wasn’t so successful, I went 5-5 on and only hit 3 of my 5 SUPER picks but ultimately came up short.
This year we’re back for revenge and we’re excited for what the season will hold. We think we’ve found some great value on the board, so let’s get to it.
In Alphabetical Order
Atlanta Hawks OVER 36.5 wins - SUPER Pick
I never loved the fit of Dejounte Murray and Trae Young. After trading Murray to New Orleans, the Hawks have a much more complementary lineup. It also allows Trae Young to do his thing the way he should. Young almost plays the game like a soccer player and he needs the freedom to ebb and flow with the game in the same way that sometimes Messi just has to walk around for a little bit. With Murray gone, Young once again has the freedom to conduct the game as he sees fit.
Yes, I know about Trae’s defensive struggles, but after the Murray trade the Hawks are are far more equipped to make up for his shortcomings. They got Dyson Daniels who is a strong defender from New Orleans and I forgot to mention that they got the No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, who prides himself on his defense. Newly paid Jalen Johnson is a monster on both ends and Quin Snyder is still one of the best coaches in the league, despite last year’s struggles. I believe in the Hawks.
Charlotte Hornets OVER 30.5 - SUPER Pick
You might be thinking to yourself, get a load of this guy. The Charlotte Hornets? As a SUPER pick? But yes! Get a load of this, I believe in the Charlotte Hornets to win at least 31 games this season. And I’m aware that this is a pretty risky bet, seeing as whether they hit that number depends on the health of LaMelo Ball, who was healthy for his rookie season when Charlotte won 43 games in 2021-22 and hasn’t been healthy since.
But this is a bet on injury luck being in LaMelo’s favor this year, new coach Charles Lee from Boston and the continued improvement of Brandon Miller. In addition to those bigger things, Charlotte looked like an NBA team after the trade deadline when they acquired Tre Mann, Grant Williams and Vasilie Micic. I think the Southeast Division will be strong from top to bottom and the surprising Hornets will be a reason why.
Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 48.5
The Cavaliers made a controversial coaching change this summer after finally advancing past the first round under JB Bickerstaff, but I think it will be one that is worthwhile. New coach Kenny Atkinson made it a habit for his teams to exceed expectations and this is a bet that he will do the same with the Cavaliers. While the overlapping skillsets of their guards and bigs have people focus on what they’re not doing, the Cavaliers have been a strong team for the past couple of seasons.
I think Atkinson will help optimize their games even more. If the Cavs don’t perform, then it may be time for the front office to consider trading one of their guards and one of their big men in service of creating a more balanced unit.
Dallas Mavericks UNDER 49.5 - SUPER Pick
This one hurts, because the Mavs were good to me last season. After I didn’t believe in them in the regular season, I came to be a true believer in the Mavs around mid-December, as it was clear that Kyrie and Luka were not doing a “your turn-my turn” act and were actually playing in a beautiful flow with each other in the last five minutes of close games.
This season, however, they’ve got a lot of stuff working against them. First of all, I don’t love the idea of bringing in Klay Thompson and seeing key players from last year’s run like Derrick Jones Jr. walk. They also were incredibly lucky with injuries to their top players last year and I don’t think that will happen again. I do think Dereck Lively will have a nice step forward in Year 2, but overall I’m not buying the Mavs this season.
Golden State Warriors OVER 44.5
It’s fitting that we go from Klay Thompson’s new team to his old team since I think his departure will clear the air a little bit in the Bay. As we saw in the Olympics, Steph Curry still has the juice and I think Thompson’s departure, as great of a player as he was for the Warriors four championships, will be addition by subtraction.
I also think Curry will have some new sets to play with as former Blazers coach Terry Stotts joined Steve Kerr’s staff this summer as an assistant. Look for the same flare screens and movement that his Portland teams featured, only this time with one of the best passing big men of all-time in Draymond Green and the greatest shooter of all-time in Curry. Not to mention they won 46 games last year. Don’t overthink it.
Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 39.5
At most sportsbooks, you can’t even get this number anymore following the news that Kawhi Leonard wouldn’t be ready to start the season. Most places have their win-total set at 35.5 now, which I think is a tougher conversation. I got them at 40.5 back in September because Kawhi’s sudden departure from Team USA told me where things were headed.
If the Clippers fail to win 36 games, they could potentially give OKC a top pick via one of the pick-swaps in the Paul George deal, which is what secured them Kawhi Leonard. Of course, you can’t blame the Clippers for swinging for the fences. But they struck out like Casey At The Bat and if they are well under this number, it could set up OKC with another prodigious talent to join their already prodigious group. So even though I’m taking the under, for everyone else outside of Oklahoma’s sake, have some pride, Clippers.
Memphis Grizzlies OVER 47.5 - SUPER Pick
I’m here for the Ja Morant comeback season. He’s finally healthy, for now at least, but the Grizzlies also added a huge piece this season by drafting Purdue’s Zach Edey. I told friends the first time I watched him at the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland that he reminded me of a bit of Yao Ming. And while comparisons to Yao might be slightly unfair, calling him a poor man’s Yao also might be a disservice.
Edey is in tremendous shape for someone his size and he showed as recently as the National Championship game that he can play heavy minutes at his enormous size. Combine his conditioning with a tenacious competitive fire and the Grizzlies have the perfect compliment to their grit and grind ethos. If Edey can help buy some time for Memphis’ injured forwards Jaren Jackson Jr., GG Jackson and Vince Williams to get fully healthy, the Grizzlies are set up to go on a run. I think the Grizzlies will do big things this year and if anyone in the West is going to be “The Surprise” to make the Finals like Dallas was last year, I’m picking the Grizzlies to be that team.
Bonus Bets: Grizzlies 16-1 to win the West, Ja Morant 40-1 to win MVP.
New York Knicks UNDER 54.5 - SUPER Pick
As corny as it was, I kind of believed in the whole Nova Knicks mystique. Sure, every team had stars. But the Knicks? They had the Power of Friendship on their side. Now, it’s business. The Knicks made the sensible basketball move, fortifying their frontcourt and the ability to open up space for their guards by adding Karl-Anthony Towns. The price to get Karl-Anthony Towns was Julius Randle, whose fit with Jalen Brunson was always questioned, as well as Donte DiVincenzo, who became a trusted crunch-time player.
But the aftermath of the trade has been even more interesting. Last week during a preseason game in New York, DiVincenzo got into it with Jalen Brunson’s Dad, Knicks assistant coach Rick Brunson, with DiVincenzo basically accusing Rick Brunson of shadow running the Knicks. The whole thing stinks and that’s before we get into the speculation into Mikal Bridges jumpshot, which appears to have a bit of a hitch. The Knicks paid a monster price for Bridges, sending the Nets 5 first round picks. If there actually is something wrong with the jumper, that price goes from very expensive but worth it to very damaging pretty quickly.
The Knicks will be a playoff team and the expectations on them are as high as ever. But I don’t think they will flirt with 60 wins like everybody else things. I think they’re still a lot closer to Cleveland than they are to Boston.
Phoenix Suns OVER 47.5
I think the Suns will benefit from a couple of things. The first of which is the fact they have added a true point guard instead of going point guard agnostic like they did last year. Despite the last decade’s “positionless” basketball movement, positions do matter sometimes. Having Tyus Jones to organize things for the Suns will help a lot, as will their new coach.
Mike Budenholzer’s Hawks and Bucks teams routinely outperformed expectations, which is something I think he will do again this season in Phoenix. Devin Booker is either in the Top 5 or just on the outside of it and Kevin Durant continues to have a LeBron-esque consistency into the later years of his career. I think they will have some issues in the playoffs depending on match-ups, but I like the Suns to have homecourt advantage in the playoffs.
Toronto Raptors UNDER 29.5
I think the Raptors will compete with the Blazers and the Nets for the worst record in the league. I look at this roster and I see a lot of guys who can rack up stats, one special player in Scottie Barnes, a bunch of unproven first and second year players and a couple of journeyman. This team is screaming 25 wins.
They want Cooper Flagg in Canada and who can blame ‘em. I wouldn’t be surprised if Scottie Barnes has some kind of long-awaited procedure just to make sure the Raptors don’t win too much.
Best of luck and happy basketball!
Finals Prediction: Celtics over Grizzlies.